Forecasting Stock Index Movement Direction by Using Individual Forecasting Methods and Combining Forecasting Method
Keywords:combining forecasting method, index movement direction, Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Index, naïve model, time series forecasting
AbstractA better forecasting accuracy helps the investors and managers to provide relevant and reliable information about present andfuture events in stock market. Important decisions can be given confidently by managers if forecasting provides informationabout the potential future events and their consequences for possible stock market movements. A better forecasting methodreduces the level of uncertainty for the investors and managers. The index movement direction is forecasted by using eighttime series forecasting and naïve model and combination of these models which are more than five hundred. The data is takenas Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 index between the period of 2006 and 2012.